Study: Toledo poised for rebound

State policy adjustments may make difference

By JOE VARDON, BLADE STAFF WRITER
Article published Saturday, May 26, 2007

For those who believe Toledo has fallen on tough times, the city is ripe for a comeback.

That is, of course, if the state of Ohio is willing to lend a helping hand.

According to a recent study released by the Brookings Institution, an urban policy research center based in Washington, older industrial cities like Toledo could experience an economic revival if their state governments adjust some public policies that have hurt these cities in the past.

The study argues that many of these struggling cities have the characteristics and resources for a turnaround - such as proximity to water, public transportation, and universities and hospitals - but need the help of their state governments to take advantage of these assets.

Toledo is bordered by Lake Erie and the Maumee River, has a public bus system, and has plenty of hospitals.

There's also a public university, an art museum, and the Toledo Mud Hens.

The Brookings study says that many big cities with these kinds of characteristics are making big economic comebacks, just not in the Northeast and Midwest - and definitely not in Ohio.

In a sample of 302 cities based on population figures in 1990 and 2000, Brookings identified 65 cities nationwide experiencing economic and social struggles.

Of those 65 suffering cities, eight are in Ohio.

"State policies in Ohio have undermined city economies and not allowed the cities to leverage their assets for quite some time," said Bruce Katz, who is the director of Brookings' Metropolitan Policy Program and contributed to the study.

But one Ohio city excluded from the list of the struggling 65 is Toledo.

While Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, Youngstown, Canton, Springfield, Mansfield, and Warren are considered struggling industrial cities by Brookings, Toledo - albeit barely - avoided that classification,

According to the study, Toledo is indeed struggling economically and is ranked 261 out of the 302 cities in the study's economic index.

However, Toledo's ranking on the study's residential well-being index is a much more palatable 194, which is how Toledo escaped a place on the struggling list.

"Progress here in Toledo has been slow, but I think its trajectory is moving in the right direction," said Neil Reid, director of the Urban Affairs Center at the University of Toledo. "As long as we keep moving in the right direction, it gives us a reason to hope."

Mr. Katz said the Brookings study represents positive news for Toledo, but it was too early to break out the champagne and celebrate.

"Toledo is facing some serious challenges that reflect the challenges cities are facing all across the state," he said.

Toledo underperformed in employment growth, salary growth, and establishment growth compared to most of the cities in Brookings' study.

But some of Toledo's social indicators, including its poverty and unemployment rates, improved from 1990 to 2000, which enabled the city to avoid being labeled as weak.

According to Brookings researchers, Toledo's unemployment rate was 7.72 percent in 2000, compared to 9.92 percent in 1990. Its poverty rate dropped from 19.09 percent in 1990 to 17.89 percent in 2000.

But, Toledo's poverty rate has increased since the last census, rising to 23.4 percent in 2005. Mr. Katz points out the increase in poverty in the city is still below the average poverty rate of 27.6 percent for all of Ohio's cities included in Brookings' list of 65.

He said Toledo also has a great deal of room to improve, with issues like a dwindling tax base, budget deficits with city government and Toledo Public Schools, and unsightly vacant buildings downtown.

Kimberly Gibson, a newly appointed adviser to Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, said the best way the state can help solve some of these problems is to create jobs.

"If you can give people a good job, you can create prosperity," said Ms. Gibson, an urban policy specialist who formerly worked at the Brookings Institution.

Ms. Gibson said more, higher-paying jobs can lead to better schools, cleaner housing developments, and less crime.

She said Brookings' findings are in line with Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's "Turnaround Ohio" campaign pledge, which promoted education and worker training as the chief engine for economic growth, and creating jobs should be the state's top priority.

"But obviously this is quite difficult to accomplish, otherwise [Ohio's big cities] wouldn't be in this position," Ms. Gibson said.

Ms. Gibson said Ohio has had some policies in place, such as commitments to help make use of vacant lots and prepare potential job sites for interested companies, that should help cities like Toledo rebound from tough economic times.

But Ms. Gibson said the reason this rebound has been slow to occur, even in places like Cleveland and Cincinnati, is some of the state's policies don't equate to urban development.

One example of this, according to Mr. Katz, is the state's track record on transportation spending.

He said Ohio has traditionally overspent its transportation dollars on roads leading to rural areas, which has essentially encouraged urban flight and suburban sprawl at a time when the state's population in general was not growing.

"Ohio's transportation policy has literally been going the wrong way for decades," Mr. Katz said.

He said Governor Strickland's administration seems poised to help Ohio's big cities, but a researcher at Bowling Green State University said state government may not be able to come to Toledo's aid.

Bruce Smith of BGSU's regional development center said some of the cities' needs require state funds that aren't available.

"The study never suggests where the state is going to get the money," Mr. Smith said. "Ohio isn't exactly rich."

Mr. Smith said Ohio's cities may have to rescue themselves from their economic struggles.

If what Mr. Smith said is true, at least two executives from UT's Urban Affairs Center said steps are being taken in Toledo to meet that challenge.

Both Mr. Reid and Sue Wuest, the center's assistant director, said the new downtown arena and Marina District on Toledo's east side could help revive the city.

Construction is set for the fall on an $85 million arena to be used for sports, concerts, and other events that will be located downtown and owned by Lucas County.

Additionally, plans are in the works for a $320 million development called the Marina District that is expected to include up to 1,500 housing units, shops, restaurants, and other businesses along the Maumee River. Project developer Larry Dillin said construction could begin by the end of the year.

Ms. Wuest said while the downtown arena will create jobs and bring more people to Toledo for entertainment, the Marina District could have a greater impact on the city because it will entice people to take up residence inside city limits.

"We need more people to live and invest in downtown," Ms. Wuest said.

"It's worth it to make sure [the Marina District] happens, but we can't stop there."

Mr. Reid said the Marina District and arena are small pieces of a bigger jigsaw puzzle, but could be the two pieces that need to be in place for the rest of the puzzle to come together.

He said Toledo has not reached that critical point where development happens without demonstrated commitment from city and county officials, but "maybe those two projects will help that happen."

"You can create a buzz downtown that you can't create anywhere else," Mr. Reid said. "But it's more than just getting people excited, you need to get businesses excited.

"Like I said, our progress has been slow, but I believe we're moving in the right direction."

Contact Joe Vardon jvardon@theblade.com or 419-410-5055.